Both the rural and the urban physical environment will reflect sharp changes in the coming decades. Increased land use for housing, employment and leisure will contribute to further urbanization, especially in the centre of the Netherlands. Depending on the degree of government protection, this could result in the deterioration of nature areas and valuable landscapes.. These are the conclusions reflected in the spatial elaboration of scenarios developed for the Sustainability Outlook.
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Summary
A spatial elaboration of scenarios developed for the Sustainability Outlook shows that both the rural and the urban physical environment will change thoroughly during the next decades. Increased land use by housing, employment and leisure will contribute to further urbanisation, especially in the centre of The Netherlands. This will result in deterioration of nature areas and valuable landscapes, depending upon the degree of government protection assumed in a scenario. Further scale enlargement and capital-intensification of the mode of production in agriculture may also threaten valuable landscapes. Besides, fairly large areas of arable farming will be superseded by cattle breeding. Finally it appears that spatial measures of water management can pose many restrictions to new urbanisation locations as well as agriculture.
A land use model has been used for this elaboration. The spatial impressions in the form of maps and illustrations show the range of possible futures. This information can support political and societal debates about priorities in policy goals on urbanisation, nature development and conservation, water management and landscape values.
