This paper presents a multi-sectoral overview of the key driving forces of land-use change. As part of the design phase for a new land-use model for the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, an overview was made of spatial processes and policies affecting land use. The overview was based on five sector-specific research efforts into the driving forces of land-use change, for each of the five largest land-occupying sectors (housing, employment, nature, water, and agriculture). Each research effort had a similar set-up and consisted of a leading expert, responsible for preparing a note on driving forces for a particular sector, and the input from leading experts, using workshops to collect views and insights from the field.
In addition to the five largest land-using sectors, the research focused on the themes transport, energy, and recreation, which are related to nearly al other sectors as they have a large influence on spatial developments and evaluation indicators.
Paper prepared for the 49th ERSA conference August 2009 in Lodz, Poland.

This book is about a particular set of geo-information technologies known as Planning Support Systems (PSS). It focuses on the adoption and application of PSS in practice. It aims to illustrate best practice and to demonstrate new methods that are being developed for creating the next generation of PSS for use in various public or private sector planning contexts. The book serves as a medium for the exchange of knowledge, insights and experiences, thereby preventing those working in this field from having to ‘reinvent the wheel’. It also serves to communicate details about PSS methodology and management to those less informed about contemporary developments.
Series: GeoJournal Library , Vol. 95, 2009, XXII, 490 p.,ISBN: 978-1-4020-8951-0. Springer

A maritime island? Dikes 25 metres high, floating houses. How can we make sure the Netherlands is still habitable when looking at the predicted climate changes? Where will we be able to live and work? Which measures do we need
to take? The Climate changes spatial planning programme encompasses several institutions that are researching climate change and its effects regarding the use of land in the Netherlands.
Geoinformatics, 11 (5), pp.26-27, 2008.
 

The Land Use Scanner is a spatial model that simulates future land use. Since its development in 1997 it has been applied in many policy-related land use projects. In 2005 a completely revised version became available. In this version land use can be modelled at a more detailed 100 meter resolution as opposed to the original 500 meter resolution. Furthermore the new version offers the possibility to model homogenous cells that offer a discrete description of land use, instead of the original continuous description that listed the fraction claimed by different types of land use in each cell. In this paper we describe the calibration and validation of the two modelling approaches available in the Land Use Scanner model. We used multinomial logistic regression methods to obtain the suitability values for the different land-use types. The resulting simulations are then compared to the observed land use in the base year (calibration)
and a future year (validation).
Paper presented at the 15TH European Colloquium on Theoretical and Quantitative Geography, ECTQG 2007, Montreux, Switzerland, 7-11 September, 2007.

Land-use change simulation modelling is a relatively new and dynamic field of study and this book provides a full overview of the topic, a wide range of applications (both geographically and thematically), a mix of theory and practice, a synthesis of recent research progress, and educational material for students and teachers.
Series:  GeoJournal Library, Vol. 90, 2007, XVII, 410 p. ISBN: 978-1-4020-5647-5. Springer

Developments affecting the environment and nature often include spatial components. This spatial information is often presented as maps. To interpret these maps correctly, we need to know how uncertainty might affect the values and patterns presented on the maps. In this report a number of suggestions to researchers have been included about dealing with and visualising uncertainty in spatial information.

Additional to the traditional land use maps 3D visualisation could provide valuable information for applications in the field of spatial planning, related to ecological and agricultural policy issues. Maps of future land use do not always reveal the appearance of the physical environment (the perceived landscape) as a result of land use changes. 3D visualisations might shed light on other aspects of changed land use, f.i. differences in height or densities of new volume objects. In: J. van Leeuwen en H. Timmermans (eds.) (2006) Innovations in Design and Decision Support Systems in Architecture and Urban Planning; congres proceedings, July 4-7 2006.

This article addresses the quantification of map similarities and dissimilarities using the MAP COMPARISON KIT (MCK) software.

In this thesis a guideline for operational validation of land use models is proposed. A goodness of fit measure as well as a measure for patterns and complexity was applied on the case study model, the Environment Explorer. WUR, Centre for Geo-information, thesis report GIRS-2006-03

The automated calibration and validation of integrated land use models requires objective quantification of model performance at different levels of abstraction. This paper puts forward a calibration and validation routine and specifically focuses on the procedures for evaluating the model output. It is found that although a fully objective procedure is not yet available, a major part of the analytical tasks can be automated.

Kuhlman, T., A. Tabeau, A. Gaaff, F. van Tongeren & J.E.C. Dekkers, paper for the 45th congress of the European Regional Science Association, Amsterdam, the Netherlands, August 23-27, 2005.

The objective of the study presented here was how to create spatially detailed land-use maps of the in 2030 using the Environment Explorer, a Cellular Automata-based land-use model to construct land-use maps from four scenarios. One of these is discussed in great detail to show how the maps were constructed from the various scenario elements, story lines and additional data and assumptions on national, regional and local land-use developments.

In the Netherlands major changes are expected to take place in (agricultural) land use. This study focuses on the expected spatial developments and simulates posssible future urbanisation patterns by using an economics bases land use model (Land use scanner).

Rietveld,P., A.J. Wagtendonk (2004) In: Environment and Planning, Volume 36, 2047-2063.

Comparing maps is an important issue in environmental research. Reasons for comparing maps may be: (i) the different socio-economic scenarios on which they are based, (ii) detection of temporal changes, (iii) calibration/validation of land-use models, (iv) hot-spot detection, (v) their use in uncertainty analysis, and (vi) their origin in different methodologies/models. This report addresses the problem of quantifying subsequent map similarities and dissimilarities.Our main focus is on maps denoted as 'categorical' or 'nominal'. A number of the five map- comparison techniques are described. These techniques differ in mathematical approach (no math, 'cell by cell', two types of 'fuzzy' and 'single-map statistics') and apply to different types of maps (nominal, ordinal, ratio and interval scale). Special attention is given to the comparison of maps through fuzzy-set calculation rules. The rationale is that fuzzy-set map comparison is very close to human judgement, as shown in an Internet experiment.The MAP COMPARISON KIT (MCK) software plays a major role in the report. MCK, a software package for 'state-of-the-art' map comparison, contains all the examples used in this report. The software, developed by order of the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, was fully designed by the Research Institute for Knowledge Systems. The software will be made publicly available on the RIVM website early 2004 (www.rivm.nl).

Koomen, E., J. Groen, J. Borsboom-van Beurden & T. Kuhlman, Rural Land use dynamics. In: M. Dijst, P. Schot & K. de Jong (eds.) Reviewed abstracts of the Framing Land Use Dynamics conference, Utrecht 16-18 april 2003.

Dekkers, J.E.C., E. Koomen, N. Vlaanderen, I. Peereboom, Simulation of future land use for water management. In: M. Dijst, P. Schot & K. de Jong (eds.) Reviewed abstracts of the Framing Land Use Dynamics conference, Utrecht 16-18 april 2003.

Kuhlman, T., E. Koomen, J. Groen, A. Bouwman, Simulating agricultural land use change in the Netherlands, paper presented at the international workshop "Transition in agriculture and future land use patterns" december 1-3, 2003 Wageningen, the Netherlands.

The Land Use Scanner is a logit model that simulates future land use in a GIS environment. In this paper we focus on the preparatory studies for the Fifth Memorandum on Spatial Planning, and especially also to the problem of numerical diffusion in the output grid maps.

A framework for assessing the impact of land use change on open space. Koomen, E., J. Groen, J. Borsboom & H.J. Scholten (2002), paper for the 42nd congress of the European Regional Science Association, Dortmund Germany. This paper describes the outline and first ideas of the ongoing research.

Koomen, E. & J. Buurman (2002) In: Papers of 5th AGILE Conference on Geographic Information Science, Palma Balearic Islands Spain. Comparison of the land prices in the Land Use Scanner model with real world land prices.

Rietveld, P., H.J. Scholten & J.C.H. Stillwell (2001), In: Stillwell, J.C.H. & H.J. Scholten (eds.), Land use simulation for Europe: 235-244, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht.

Simulations for The Netherlands using a GIS-based land use model Schotten, C.G.J., R. Goetgeluk, M. Hilferink, P. Rietveld & H.J. Scholten (2001), Environmental modeling and assessment 6: 133-143. Describes the simulation of future land use and its possible environmental impact in a reference study for policy development.

Wagtendonk, A.J., R. P. Julião, C,G.J. Schotten (2001), in: J. Stillwell, H.J. Scholten (eds.), Simulating Land use simulation for Europe: 257-289, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht.

Schotten, C.G.J. & C. Heunks (2001), In: Stillwell, J.C.H. & H.J. Scholten (eds.), Land use simulation for Europe: 245-256, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht.

Hilferink, M. & P. Rietveld (1998), Tinbergen Institute discussion paper TI 98-108/3 Amsterdam/Rotterdam. Also published in: Journal of Geographical Systems, 1(2): 155-177, 1999. This paper describes the structure of the Land Use Scanner, with emphasis on its mathematical formulation.

Scholten, H.J., R. van de Velde, P. Rietveld & M. Hilferink (1999), In: Stillwell, J., S. Geertman, S. Openshaw (eds.), Geographical Information and Planning: 112-134, Springer-Verlag, Berlin

Schotten, C.G.J., C. Heunks, A.J. Wagtendonk, J.J.G. Buurman, C.J. de Zeeuw, H. Kramer & W.T. Boersma (2001), NRSP-2 report 00-22, BCRS, Delft